Again, the issue with adoption is that the timing is so damn hard. One of the ideas is to have sort of a SWAT team of people who go around looking for how to connect the dots all day long in these serendipitous ways. Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. Below are some guiding questions . VCs will literally escape through the bathroom to avoid talking to us., Stripe: Banks & online payment processors like PayPal are heavily-regulated inefficient monopolies which really suck; well make friends with some banks and run a payment processor which doesnt suck. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Lawrence Shepp (attributed; Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered). This has historically been less typical in the venture world, but, increasingly, as entrepreneurs take on more established industriesparticularly those that are regulatedbringing a view of the market that is unconstrained by previous professional experiences may in fact be a plus. Example: in retrospect, we know everyone wanted computers, OSes, social networksbut the history of them is strewn with flaming rubble. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . But this animal does not figure among the domestic animals, it is not easy to find, it does not lend itself to any classification. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). You could never design a bicycle theoretically. We continued to be in desperate financial trouble, particularly with our suppliers. Survival alone is highly chancy, and founders can often see times where it came down to a dice roll.10 Like historical events in general (Risi et al 2019), the importance of an event or change is often known only in retrospect. On phones! 1. It may be easier said than done, but one of the biggest factors in taking time to reflect should be stillness and, if possible, solitude. Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. Three-dimensional-seismic-data acquisition and interpretation and borehole images became widespread while I worked in integrated reservoir characterization. It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. We were talking about the past: VR wasnt talked about for a long time, right? The average of multiple plans is often worse than any single plan. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. Large ones can run large long-term projects investigating something thoroughly, but then err by being full of inefficient bureaucracy and overcentralization, killing promising lines of research because a well-placed insider doesnt like it or they just dont want to, and can use their heft to withhold data or suppress results via peer review. I immediately check on people; I barely even talk to. it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). Our signature selling point will be that it takes fewer lines of code to set up, so programmers will like us., LinkedIn: Well do social networking like has been already patented by SixDegrees.com, forcing us to buy their patent., Slack: IRC+email but infinitely slower & more locked in. I think we see this a lot. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. From the Paleolithic times to the Information Age, technology is ever so expanding and evolving alongside with us. but less Youve seen the curves Gordon Moore discovered. Why are success and failure so intertwined in the tech industry? The two failure modes of a MAB algorithm are investing too much in one option early on, and then investing too little later on; in the former, you inefficiently buy too much information on an option which happened to have good luck but is not guaranteed to be the best at the expense of others (which may in fact be the best), while in the latter, you buy too little & risk permanently making a mistake by prematurely rejecting an apparently-bad option (which simply had bad luck early on). A predictable waste of money, perhaps, but thats how the incentives work out. Everything of importance has been said before by somebody who did not discover it. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. In many ways, technology simplifies life,and it has many beneficial effects to the community and the human condition. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? Its possible for entrepreneurs to create something with huge impact. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". All those huge initiatives and? Head and introduced the BS and MS degree programs in petroleum engineering. 30 years later, its the same headlines. They grew fast, roflstomped other social networks, stayed private, and post-IPO, public investors have not profited all that much compared to even late investors. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. 64), The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), Facebook: the world needs yet another MySpace or Friendster [or. Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. There is no right or wrong answer. Lets start one. Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. The only time my timing was bad was when I requested a transfer to Venezuela to start up a reservoir-modeling consulting group in time to see the oil price plummet in 1997. . What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. (And what about Douglas Engelbart, or Alan Kay/Xerox PARC, who explicitly aimed to skate towards where the puck would be?) It was not much but it came at a critical time and kept us in business for another week. Bad ideas that look like bad ideas are also easily dismissed; as the description implies, they are simply bad and thus likely to be trapdoors through which your investment dollars will vanish. The origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy; eg. We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they work, and sometimes they change the world. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. X Research source. What is different? Then after your special knowledge has become public knowledge, the robotics company goes public, and by EMH, their shares become a normal investment. This presents a conflict between personal and social incentives. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effects of sports, sports education, technological uses, and their effects on sports education. The course The ICT course was not really difficult, as I had a very good knowledge about the different types of technologies that were presented, but the idea of adapting them to my classroom got me thinking. Pillars of the Industry - Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Let yourself Relax, sit and breathe mindfully, and try to block out any surrounding distractions. This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. Academy of Engineering in 2003. These23 bulbs (each an original in its inventors eyes) varied tremendously in how they fleshed out the abstraction of electric lightbulb. Different inventors employed various shapes for the filament, different materials for the wires, different strengths of electricity, different plans for the bases. Cook calls this cracking the nut. Someone could have built the Rift in mid-to-late 2007 for a few thousand dollars, and they could have built it in mid-2008 for about $673.5$500.02008. Technology now is considered as a subject and profession in the learning and career environment. Whatever the evidence, the fundamental question VCs are trying to answer is: Why back this founder against this problem set versus waiting to see who else may come along with a better organic understanding of the problem? (Checking a few random entries in Wikipedia, as of 2012, maybe a fifth of the companies are publicly traded, and the private ones include the ones you mightve heard of like Boston Robotics or Kiva so that will be a small unrepresentative index.) All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. ChristineEhlig-Economides, through her eventful career, has been there when many breakthroughs were made that have created a step change in our understanding of the mechanisms that govern the recovery of hydrocarbons. He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. Err (DARPA indeed saw itself as much like a VC firm.). Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. I dont know what they can do to move faster but I suspect it has to do with placement (distribution) and with networks which both depend on (corrupt) entities.. If 2020 has taught us anything, it's that the key is to stay nimble, adaptive, and be prepared for unexpected change. Apparently by individuals acting suboptimally on the personal level, but optimally on societal level by serving as random exploration. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. Well strip out all of the ad-supported news and portal features so you wont be distracted from using the free search stuff. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. Entrepreneurs, with their speculations and optimistic biases, serve as randomization devices to sample a strategy regardless of the conventional wisdom, which at that point may be no more than an information cascade; information cascades, however, can be broken by the existence of outliers who are either informed or act at random (misfits). With few exceptions, established offline firms have failed to catch up to today's Internet leaders. Open Document Technology, and its underlying aspects affect all of us as we go through the continuum of time. Meaning to say the development of technology should have proper timing. Cer- ogy investments because it allows one to Sensors, displays batteries! One was formation testing,9,10 the other production-log testing.11 Many heated arguments ensued over whether well tests were really needed if permeability could be determined from formation tests. My best timing was meeting my husband of nearly 30 years, Michael Economides. Soon after this experience, I decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering. What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. and less. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. The auditor who went through the companys books concluded that it was entirely solventwhich isnt surprising, when you consider that the lands it owned in America now produce trillions of dollars in economic value. One could also say the same thing of China: countless European observers forecast that China was a sleeping giant which, once it industrialized & modernized, would again be a global power. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. File Management and Mapping. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. A RESEARCH STUDY ABOUT "REFLECTIONS OF TECHNOLOGY ENHANCED LEARNING AWARENESS" Nazime Tuncay Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, North Cyprus Abstract: TEL (Technology Enchanted Learning) helps students to take more control over their knowledge and help them to be more motivated, more self-directed, more organized and more strategic. Is there a sustainable development reason to reduce our consumption? There are many ways technology can help teachers see themselves and their practice more clearly. My PhD adviser at Stanford was Professor Henry J. Ramey Jr., one of the all-time giants in reservoir engineering, and especially in well testing. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. And the Media Lab wasnt the only one, General Magic (1989), had an almost identical vision of a networked future powered by small touchscreen devices. A place like Bell Labs benefits from remaining in contact with the needs of commerce, as it provides a check on lart pour lart pathologies, a fertile source of problems, and can feed back the benefits of mass production/experience curves. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. I once was shown some data acquired in a water-injection well that was abruptly shut in from a flow rate of 30,000 BOPD. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. After that, an explosion of new models presented on log-log coordinates appeared in the mushrooming well-test literature. Tesla: instead of just building batteries and selling them to Detroit, we are going to build our own cars from scratch plus own the distribution network. In His perfect timing, all is planned We must have patience, hold His hand. What would you do with it? Home robotics will have increased just as you believedkeikaku doori!yet your index fund gone bankrupt (reindex when one of the robotics companies collapses? Modern genomics strikes me as a bit like this. Again, self reflection is not about building your "best life", it's about figuring out what type of person you want to become. Maybe computers are faster. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. Reflection of light occurs when waves hit a surface that, instead of absorbing radiation, bounce the waves away from the surface. 1. The problem was that some tests never exhibited the correct straight line for analysis, although it was always possible to find an apparent oneone that would lead, in many cases, to completely erroneous results. I barely even talk to the origins of many startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing of them strewn! 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timing your technology reflection
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