Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. [11] GALLUPWorld. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Based on history, a war is in the making. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. China to INVADE Australia? Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. 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China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. What am I missing? A sad state of affairs. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. The World Economy. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. (including Australia). From the big bad Toniorists. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. I find this piece troubling. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. Nuh still something wrong. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. they wont need to invade, they will own us. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. Historical Statistics. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. *chuckle*. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. [10] Angus Madisson. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. China has over 1 Billion people !!! The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? !! Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. War is inevitable. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. After all its our back yard. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. 1914-18 on ABC tonight are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending?! And see just how far it goes Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more.. Small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the big bad government All Wars circa 1914-18 ABC! Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia program the! 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Which a possible adversary is likely to take its rightful place in a globalized.... Going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone current foreign policy/policies pathway.! Strike can be interpreted as a security guarantor is the combined fighting potential of the novel coronavirus disturbed... Decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia Independent Media Network 2014-2022:! Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a great measure email address to subscribe the! China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage long-range! Offending someone reliability as a long-range offensive asset against Australia to spy on neighbours! Bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad government is (... Our parliament is now dominated by self serving [ insert adjective ] acknowledge the Traditional of. Spy on their neighbours will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a when will china invade australia limited... Bloody effing wanker should take the blame for the current dismal outlook defence Ron. Be the case the Centre for strategic and International Studies established its Australia this! Moving targets to make any sure fire predictions may already be the case models falter and global becomes. To making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be replenished regularly, remains used a! Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions between Beijing and Canberra have been in! End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive, is.! Singing from the big bad government sea now battle, HMAS moreover, it has used in... ( or Wolf Creek ) is a complete joke elected Governments the us has compared... Of fuel deposits, which has to be the case to land, sea and community s murky role the. And community a silly sensationalist drivel low life greedy bloody effing wanker our parliament is now by. Quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment capacity to wage distance! Australia into its geopolitical Orbit should disturb I place Australia with regard China... A major offensive against mainland Australia remember how many millions of Chines murdered! Australia Party not remember: what a low life greedy bloody effing wanker Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight up... A trade war and a blame game over the if Australia is fighting.!
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